Nicaragua: chaos in the streets

From La Prensa, 12 May 2008

For the past nine days, Nicaragua has been undergoing a transportation strike. It may seem simple, but a mere convenience for those of us who live in the US, as we're often accustomed to getting around on our own in cars, but that is not the case for many in the hemisphere's second poorest country.

A few days ago I was on the phone with friends in Managua. They told me that gas prices are out of control, 100 Cordobas* per gallon, which is the highest in the region, despite the "generosity" of the mico mandante. There is no meat in the markets (both smaller as well as the supermarkets), and one is hard-pressed to find many other staples; if they can be found, they're extremely expensive. Inflation is right around 17 or 18%; obviously this affects the poor (48% of the country in 2005) more than anyone.

My dear friend la compa~era anticomunista and I had a very good conversation today --well, all of our conversations are very good, but this one was particularly enlightening for me-- and for your reading pleasure, I am going to republish translated versions of some of her comments.

On why the protest is taking place: "They are protesting so the government lowers gas prices...so the government says that they can subsidize the prices with funds from the budget. The Assembly says NO because the government must first be accountable for what remains of the Venezuelan oil, and with that money create the subsidies. (...) There has been one confirmed death, though rumors say there have been more. There is no public transportation to transport people between the municipalities. They are not letting private transportation carrying food into Managua pass through, and because of this shortages in the market are beginning." She later tells me that government will be subsidizing six cordobas on the gallon.

The fact that a government which is allegedly receiving highly subsidized oil, and subsequently earning money off said oil via the Albanisa arrangement it holds with PDVSA, one would think that the government would use those funds...but it instead will move to use funds from an already tight budget. I think my boyfriend Manuelito sums it up quite nicely, per usual, with today's political cartoon:



It doesn't stop there, though. I got e-mails from friends in other parts of the country, in which I got additional details which are worth mentioning. In San Benito, the transportistas were facing off with the police, and trucks were burned. Police chief Aminta ordered the police into the rural areas, despite their not being equipped to do so; this was done under the auspices to protect order --something with which I hardly take issue-- but as my friends cite, the police were nowhere to be found during the MONTHS of rioting in Managua with the people of Chureca.

All of my friends have mentioned that many of those angry on Channels 2 and 8 are from the CPCs, which are generally viewed to be more sympathetic to Ortega than the sorry excuse for an opposition. I don't know if this is the straw that will break the bachiburro's back, but I do know that, despite anyone's political convictions, if a person cannot feed their kids and cannot work (either because they are the ones providing transportation or they can only get to their place of employment using public transportation), things will not be good for the current government. This transportation strike is not isolated; it is taking place in 153 of the 154 municipalities in the national territory. I haven't been to Nicaragua in months, but my friends down there tell me that things have gotten so much worse, infrastructure continues to lag despite oil dollars flowing into the country. Prices continue to skyrocket: last week, 100 normal-sized oranges cost 120 cordobas; today, 100 small oranges cost 210. Just like in Venezuela, there is no milk and no eggs.

What does Borreguito do in a time of great despair? What any coward would do: leaves the country, this time to Peru.

*19 Cordobas = $1 USD

Aterciopelados for a Tuesday afternoon

No, there is nothing terribly special about a Tuesday afternoon, but there most certainly is about Atercios, one of my favorite bands, which just so happens to be from Colombia. I am pretty sure I have posted this video before, but it was their first song I really enjoyed, and when I saw them perform it live in DC last year, I went crazy.

Tu rostro lo tengo fijado en el lado de adentro de mis párpados...

Newsflash! Dr. Uribe is still ridiculously popular

In fact, 83% of Colombians are fans of the president. His disapproval rating has gone down ten percentage points in a four-month period. Impressive? I think so.

I have had the opportunity as of late to talk about the motherland with several friends, and they can't believe that Uribe's approval rating is so high. Since I don't live in Colombia, I don't pretend to know all the reasons why it is, but of one thing I am sure: security. Over the past six years, the levels of security in Colombia have risen; people feel safer; cities are safer; crime is down; unemployment is down. I think the issue of security is something which my gringo friends often have trouble grasping. If they have never lived in a country in which security is problematic, to see upped police presence or even military personnel on the streets is intimidating; for many in Colombia, though, given the tumultuous history, this is not intimidating, but rather a comfort.

I don't know if this will resonate with a lot of people who have only lived in the US or in western Europe, but it is a reality which exists in many places in Latin America, where, if given the choice to be able to go walk to the Plaza Bolívar past 8pm knowing that one will be safe due to increased security in public spaces or no, I would venture to say that the vast majority would pick the former.

Another Cuban athlete deserts the Communist "paradise"

Apparently things were going so well for Yurisel Laborde on that island of freedom we all know as Cuba --sarcasm OFF-- she didn't return, and is currently in Miami.

Welcome to freedom, Yurisel!

Andrés Oppenheimer, on the Mérida Initiative

I'll opine on this later, in a piece where I give my thoughts on the Mérida Initiative. Love him or hate him, here is what Oppenheimer has to say on the subject; am not in complete agreement, but hey, I'm just a kid.

Posted on Sun, May. 11, 2008
Democrats wrong on cutting Mexican anti-drug aid
By ANDRES OPPENHEIMER
The murder of the acting chief of Mexico's federal police amid an unprecedented wave of drug gang attacks on security officials will soon become a major issue in the U.S. presidential candidates' escalating war for Hispanic votes.

Until now, Republicans and Democrats had tried to make as little noise as possible about the Bush administration's Mérida Initiative, a request for $500 million to help Mexico fight its drug cartels. They hoped to pass it quietly, fearing that a high-profile debate would stir up political passions on both sides of the border and kill the proposal.

But with drug war violence in Mexico escalating to record levels in recent memory, that's changing fast.
Likely Republican candidate Sen. John McCain will probably try to cut into the Democrats' growing lead among Hispanics by saying that their proposal to reduce the Mérida Initiative by up to $190 million amounts to ''abandoning'' Mexico at a time when President Felipe Calderón's government is facing a bigger than ever attack from the drug cartels.

It may be much like when McCain blamed Democrats for ''abandoning'' Colombia by resisting ratification of the U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement. Only that, in Mexico's case, the political stakes at home are higher because more than 65 percent of the more than 10 million Hispanic voters are of Mexican origin.

When I asked the McCain campaign Friday evening for a reaction to the Democrat majority-proposed cuts to the Mérida Initiative, I got a statement from McCain's top foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann that sounded like the opening salvo of the coming Republican offensive.

`UNDERMINING ALLIES'
''At a time when we have a Mexican president willing to take the fight to vicious narco-traffickers, it is appalling and irresponsible that congressional Democrats would cut funding,'' Shuenemann said. ``This is just the latest example of Democrats undermining our allies.''

Carl Meacham, a senior Republican staffer at the Senate Foreign Relations, said that last week's killing of acting federal police chief Edgar Millan Gomez is ''a huge thing.'' He added, ``An escalating war is raging along the U.S. border, and many in Congress are refusing to assist a neighbor who has come for our help.''

The slain police chief was the highest-ranking of about 200 officers killed by drug trafficking gangs over the past year and a half in apparent retaliation against Calderon's military offensive against the drug cartels.

According to a U.S. Senate report authored by Meacham, 2,600 Mexicans have lost their lives in police actions against drug traffickers over the past year, and the Mexican government has invested $3 billion and deployed 30,000 troops in an effort to combat the drug cartels.

The Mérida aid package is aimed at helping Mexico buy eight transport helicopters, improve intelligence sharing, and reduce the massive smuggling of .50 mm rifles, grenades and other high power U.S. weapons to Mexico. The plan does not contemplate the presence of U.S. troops in Mexico.

Most Democrats in Congress say they want to vote for aid to Mexico, but they object to what they say is an excessive focus on military aid at the expense of institution-building assistance, and they note that some anti-immigration Republican legislators are opposing the Mérida initiative.

Senate Western Hemisphere subcommittee chairman Chris Dodd of Connecticut told me in an e-mail that ``we are planning to provide the Mexican government with critical financial assistance, while at the same time ensuring that we can also address various humanitarian emergencies around the world.''

On Friday, the AFL-CIO and the United Steelworkers, which are baking the Democrats in the November elections, called for blocking the aid plan, citing concerns over human rights abuses.

My opinion: In this column a week ago, I ripped McCain for moving increasingly closer to anti-immigration hawks in his party, and for leaving behind the comprehensive immigration plan he once supported to embrace a new stand that I described as economically stupid, politically unwise and dangerous from a national security point of view.

DEMOCRATS CAVED IN
Today, it's the Democrats' turn to be singled out for caving in to the populist-isolationist wing of their party, and irresponsibly turning their back to an escalating war against the bad guys on the U.S. border.

Unless Democrats and their candidates give their full support to the initiative, they should face a backlash among some of the growing numbers of Hispanic voters who have flocked to the Democratic Party in recent months.

Venezuela news items that didn't quite make the front page

Yes, I know: the world is abuzz about Interpol's findings from "Raúl Reyes'" computer. We've all read about it, as well as el macacón's erroneous characterization of Angela Merkel being a descendant of Hitler --how's the for diplomacy?-- and while I by no means want to diminish the importance of it, there are some things which you may have missed on your radar:

The Belarusians and my buddy Lukashenka are tied to this debacle. Honestly, not surprised at all, especially if one follows how close Chávez and Lukashenka are.

Chávez continues on his spending spree, this time buying Chinese K-8 planes and $2 billion worth of Russian weaponry.

Chávez says the US is trying to sabotage the Olympics. Part of me is surprised he didn't say that Bush himself was the one who is coordinating this so-called effort.

And because some of the idiots here in DC can't be convinced that China isn't making an active stake in Latin America --they are trying to buy their way into the IDB, at which point they will be able to maintain a strong presence throughout the region-- they'll be heading into a joint venture to extract oil from the Orinoco delta and subsequently refine the heavy crude in China. Why would they do this, if the trip on barges from western Venezuela takes 44 days to get to China? (The vessels are too big to pass through the Panama Canal zone.) Well, my suspicions lead me to believe that since many of the CITGO refineries in the US are dilapidated and Venezuela isn't making attempts to properly maintain them, according to US legal standards, Chávez is realizing that he will soon be needing new refineries. Though refineries have been promised to both Panama and Nicaragua in the past, I really don't see those as being feasible. Panama would be much more convenient than China, in geographic terms, but it is becoming increasingly unstable, as evidenced by the SUNTRACS protests of mid-February 2008. (Side note: my sources tell me that these protests were funded by --wait for it-- el desgobierno bolibanano!) To qualify Nicaragua as a basketcase might be one of the biggest understatements of the year... The only thing Nicaragua does in an expedient fashion is grant Nicaraguan citizenship to FARC-in-training Lucía Morett. Fuera de vaina, the government is a mess, as is the opposition. The business community within the country is becoming increasingly disenchanted; foreign investment is waning; Ortega, to my mind, is a puppet of convenience of Chávez, and Chávez isn't willing to stake something this important on the shoulders of the bachiburro. So, turning to China doesn't seem totally illogical, though in the short- and mid-term, it might be slightly impractical, from an economic standpoint. However, let's not forget that China's economy is not only booming, but continually growing... this is attractive to a country which continues to lose a great deal of foreign (Western) investment.

All right, kids: buckle up, this is about to get very exciting very quickly...

Aparece de nuevo "Valijagate"

...esta vez, en el diario argentino La Nacion. Se esta poniendo buena la vaina:


El caso Antonini Wilson / Nota I de II

La historia de cómo llegó al país la valija del escándalo

Salió de la sede de Pdvsa y fue custodiada en el vuelo

WASHINGTON.– La valija con casi 800.000 dólares salió de la petrolera estatal de Venezuela, Pdvsa. Fue llevada hasta el Aeropuerto Internacional de Maiquetía por uno de los responsables de la seguridad de la empresa y fue custodiada en vuelo por otro de sus empleados. Hasta que todo se complicó en el aeroparque Jorge Newbery y comenzó el desmadre general cuando el pasaje del avión fletado por Enarsa fue controlado por la Aduana.

Tanto Diego Uzcátegui Matheus como su hijo, Daniel Uzcátegui Specht, saben los nombres de cada uno de estos eslabones, contaron numerosas fuentes a La Nacion desde Venezuela y corroboraron datos obtenidos en Estados Unidos, donde se sustancia una investigación que ya derivó en que tres acusados se declararan culpables, mientras que un cuarto va rumbo al juicio oral y un quinto continúa prófugo.

Todo comenzó en un almuerzo celebrado en la sede de Pdvsa, en Caracas, el 3 de agosto. Allí departieron Uzcátegui padre con el referente comercial de la Casa Rosada para Venezuela, Claudio Uberti, y su secretaria, Victoria Bereziuk. Sentados alrededor de una mesa rectangular, el almuerzo mostró la confianza que se tenían los comensales, relataron testigos del encuentro. No se siguieron parámetros protocolares a la hora de asignar los asientos.

Con las cabeceras vacías, Uzcátegui se sentó en una esquina, con Marjorie Gutiérrez, su mano derecha en Pdvsa, sentada a su lado. Enfrente de él se acomodó el supuesto “valijero”, como acusaron en Venezuela y en la Argentina a Guido Alejandro Antonini Wilson, que permanece bajo custodia en algún punto de Estados Unidos.

A la izquierda de Antonini y enfrente de Gutiérrez se sentó Uberti. Y a su izquierda, a su vez, se acomodó Bereziuk, según reconstruyó LA NACION. Hubo mozos del servicio de catering del restaurante Casa Urrutia, entrando y saliendo de ese recinto. Cuando habían comenzado a comer llegaron Daniel Uzcátegui Specht y una amiga de él, hija de una ex embajadora de Venezuela en Uruguay. Se sentaron a la derecha de Gutiérrez, él, y en la cabecera de ese lado, ella.

El objetivo formal del almuerzo era evaluar el "gasoducto continental" y debatir qué empresas podrían sumarse como proveedores para el "anillo energético", como se apodó al proyecto en el Ministerio de Planificación Federal, que conduce Julio De Vido. Fue entonces cuando se definió que Antonini Wilson y Daniel Uzcátegui volarían a Buenos Aires en el avión privado junto a Uberti y Bereziuk, pocas horas después.

La famosa valija con los 800.000 dólares fue custodiada hasta el aeropuerto por un hombre misterioso, que trabaja en la gerencia de Prevención y Control de Pérdidas (PCP) de Pdvsa, la rama encargada de darle seguridad a la petrolera y, según sus críticos, servir de "policía interna", montar un sistema de espionaje, proteger la infraestructura física y canalizar las partidas de dinero.

Ese hombre se llamaría "Reiter" o "Reiner", según confiaron dos fuentes venezolanas a LA NACION. Para el reconocido periodista venezolano Nelson Bocaranda, se trataría de un custodio del titular de Pdvsa, Rafael Ramírez, llamado Reiter Ramírez.

Según Bocaranda, el dinero salió de la División Manufactura y Mercadeo de Pdvsa, donde la última firma autorizando su salida contable habría sido de una funcionaria llamada Mirna Rondón. Desde entonces, el periodista responsabilizó a los dos Ramírez, Rafael y Reiter, de lo que pudiera pasarles a él o a su familia.

Al frente de la PCP desde 2003 figuró un general de Brigada, Wilmer Barrientos, que fue removido en octubre de 2007 en medio de una purga que incluyó acusaciones de movimientos espurios de dinero. Pero la relevancia de ese puesto quedó clara en abril del año pasado, cuando se puso en sus manos el operativo de seguridad para la Cumbre Energética Sudamericana. Fue en la isla Margarita, con Hugo Chávez, Néstor Kirchner y otros 10 presidentes.

Ya en vuelo rumbo a Buenos Aires, dos voces señalaron ante la consulta de LA NACION a uno de los funcionarios de Pdvsa, Wilfredo Avila Driet, como el supuesto custodio del dinero. Oficialmente, trabaja en el área de Protocolo de la petrolera. Pero en esa sección, una mujer dijo a LA NACION que no trabaja allí, quizá sólo para evitar futuras llamadas incómodas de la prensa.

Luego, LA NACION logró contactar directamente a Avila Driet para preguntarle. Confirmó que se llamaba así, pero dijo que debía tratarse de "un homónimo". Cortó. Nunca más, pese a los reiterados intentos, volvió a atender su teléfono. Siempre cortó.

Viejos conocidos, tras aquel almuerzo en Caracas del 3 de agosto, Diego Uzcátegui y Antonini Wilson volvieron a verse en Buenos Aires.

Fue en la Casa Rosada, donde también estuvo el hijo del primero, Daniel, que en enero último negó haber ingresado en la sede presidencial. Pero Bereziuk así lo declaró a la Justicia y se lo confirmó una segunda fuente a LA NACION.

En Venezuela, mientras tanto, el gobierno bolivariano busca calmar las ansiedades de todos los eventuales implicados, contaron a LA NACION dos voces independientes entre sí.

Les dicen a los Uzcátegui que desde Buenos Aires les informan que en la Justicia "van a arreglar todo".

Por Hugo Alconada Mon
Corresponsal en EE.UU.

Notas relacionadas

11.05.2008 | Bereziuk, obligada a mantener perfil bajo
11.05.2008 | Los fiscales argentinos quieren viajar a EE.UU.

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Happy Mother's Day!

In taking a quick break from the presentation on which I am currently working I feel it necessary to wish all the mothers out there a Happy Mother's Day!

I am in DC, and my mom unfortunately is not. Yes, of course I spoke with her for a while already, but it's not the same...

The older I am, the more I appreciate my mom and everything she has done for me.

She is the epitome of love: she fed me in the middle of the night when I woke up crying; she took care of me when I was constantly sick as a young child; she pushed me to do better when she knew I was just being lazy; she drove me to sports practices and music competitions, getting up early just so I could have extra time to warm up. She woke me up every Sunday morning and took me to church; she made sure I studied extra for the exams which she knew would determine where I got into school; she told me to apply to the best schools in the country because I deserved to go there, even when I believed otherwise; she has always been the first one to praise when deserved and let me know when I screwed up; she has always been the first one to tell me how much she loves me when I do (continue to) screw up.

She is the epitome of self-restraint: when I went unconscious on the field because of a hit taken in a game, she didn't flinch, she didn't cry, she didn't even get up from her seat. I don't remember any of that though; I do remember coming to, and seeing her right there with that look she so often gives me like, "Well Kate, look what you've gotten yourself into this time..." But honestly, that didn't matter: just knowing that she was the first one there, and that she has always been the first one there was more than enough to make everything ok.

She is the single-most influential person in my life: we have the same mannerisms, we speak similarly to each other, we share the same facial expressions, we have the same vocal intonation. We think the same way --much to my papa's dismay, jaja-- and approach problems the same way. We both suffer from caring too much for people and feeling the need to bear the burden on our own. We are proud people, and find it hard to ask for help from others. Loyalty is important, but honesty is the baseline on which we judge people. We love God, we love this country, despite all her faults and shortcomings, and we are enamored with our family.

Everything I've just written in no way encompasses everything you have done for me or everything you mean to me, but Mom, si leggi questo post, ti voglio bene. Mi manchi... I wish I were there right now, I hate being far from you and papa. Ti voglio bene, mamma...con tutto il cuore.

More on those pesky documents from the Reyes computer

Y el macacon esta que explota de la arrechera en tres, dos, uno... Probablemente emputado que sus amiguitos (lease: los borregos que son parte de la cuerda de ineptos de su desgobierno y su rosca) hayan sido descubiertos en esta vaina.

From WaPo:

Colombia shows new rebel documents

By FRANK BAJAK

The Associated Press
Friday, May 9, 2008; 8:30 PM

BOGOTA, Colombia -- A newly disclosed set of documents that Colombia's government says were recovered from a slain rebel's computers indicate senior Venezuelan officials tried to help arm Colombia's main guerrilla army.

The electronic documents _ more than a dozen _ were shown to The Associated Press on Friday.

They detail alleged meetings between senior Venezuelan officials _ including that country's chief of military intelligence and interior minister _ and top leaders of the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. Some discuss the procurement of weapons, others rebel training for Venezuelan home defense forces.

Venezuelan officials maintain that Bogota is manipulating the truth.

"The whole thing is like a movie. Fiction is fiction, reality is reality," Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, said Friday.

The documents shown to the AP are among 11,000 that Colombian officials say they found in laptops, external drives and memory sticks recovered in a March 1 cross-border raid in Ecuador that killed rebel leader Raul Reyes and 24 other people.

Some 2,000 of the documents had been erased but were recovered through computer forensics, a senior Colombian official told the AP.

Colombia released several dozen documents immediately after the raid, and since then has periodically shown more to reporters. A Washington intelligence official vouched for the documents' authenticity, saying they were delivered to U.S. intelligence agencies in March.

The U.S. and Colombian officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity.

The documents seen by the AP are all allegedly internal communications between FARC commanders, chiefly messages from Ivan Marquez, the rebels' main representative in Venezuela. Several discuss what Colombian officials interpret as an open-ended Venezuelan loan of at least US$200 million to obtain arms.

Venezuela's socialist president, Hugo Chavez, has expressed ideological sympathy for the FARC, but denies aiding the rebels militarily. He consistently refers to "the supposed computer of Raul Reyes."

The peasant-based FARC has been trying to overthrow successive Colombian governments for a half-century. But since taking office in 2002, current President Alvaro Uribe has used a U.S.-backed military buildup to throw the rebels off balance.

At Colombia's request, Interpol has examined the three laptops, two external drives and three memory sticks and is expected to issue a report on them next week.

On Friday, a front-page story in The Wall Street Journal about some of the new documents suggested their disclosure would put more pressure on the Bush administration to add Venezuela to a list of state sponsors of terrorist groups.

Analysts call that unlikely because such a designation would mean economic sanctions _ and the U.S. relies too much on Venezuelan oil.

"There is not even consensus among the Republicans that it would be helpful," said Adam Isacson of the Washington-based Center for International Policy. "Also, having to get a special license for all Venezuelan oil sales to the U.S. would throw the fuel market in a bit of turmoil."

The price of crude rose above US$126 a barrel for the first time Friday as investors questioned whether the Wall Street Journal report could lead to a confrontation between Washington and Venezuela.

On Wednesday, Bush referred to Venezuela's alleged backing of the FARC in a speech.

"Colombia faces a hostile and anti-American neighbor in Venezuela, where the regime has forged an alliance with Cuba, collaborated with FARC terrorists and provided sanctuary to FARC units," he said.

Chavez called that a lie in a speech Friday, saying: "It's good that Comrade Bush is messing with us, because that means we're doing well."

Recall referendum in Nicaragua?

Yeah, I couldn't believe my eyes when I read it this afternoon on Noticias24. I had several brief conversations about this with M2 and my compa~era anticomunista (who is Nicaraguan), and let's just say that none of us was optimistic -- at all.

As I have mentioned many times in the past, I don't have much hope or confidence in the Nicaraguan opposition. Honestly, I would play a wager --and I am hardly a betting woman-- that if you put three of them from the same party in the same room, they couldn't agree on something simple and basic. Now, one must remember that Nica's opposition isn't just one party, but is composed of the PLC (Partido Liberal Constitucionalista), the PC (Partido Conservador), the movement Vamos con Eduardo (Let's go with Eduardo, referencing Eduardo Montealegre, former presidential candidate, banker, and likely candidate for Managua's mayorship in November), the MRS (Movimiento Renovador Sandinista), and other smaller parties.

I have no problem with a political system in which there are more than two parties --in fact, I think I should like that for the US, though I sincerely doubt we'll ever get there-- but the way in which the party leaders of aforementioned political parties are organized, or maybe better said, are not organized, would make a possible recall referendum a la 15 August 2004 in Venezuela near to impossible. Couple that with an apathetic citizenry and civil society organizations which give the parties a run for their money as the winner of the "Least Organized Organization" (oxymoronic, isn't it?) in all of Nicaragua, we certainly have a lot of work to do...

I will copy and paste verbatim what I said to M2 this afternoon, and I think the reader will be able to see the striking, unfortunate parallels to the Venezuelan political system: "The Nica opposition is delusional, they can't get their heads out of their butts, I am surprised the idea of a recall even occurred to them. Too many opposition are in bed --literally and figuratively-- with the FSLN, plus pacto forces with Alemán, I don't see this as being terribly feasible. Montealegre is an idiot, and the worst politician I've ever seen in my life. Civil society is a mess. Inflation is getting worse by the day. People have no food. Municipal elections, in which Montealegre will probably be running for the mayorship of Managua, are in November. I think Montealegre is in for a fight if he thinks he can get a traditionally apathetic political society to pay attention when many can't feed their children."

Having to deal with this, plus strikes --I was told today's was a complete failure-- and scarcity of food food staples (where have I heard that before? Oh right, from Venezuela.) I really cannot conceive how the opposition would be able to rally together and come up with the requisite number of signatures for the firmazos, and subsequently change a large enough sector of public opinion and convince it to vote against Daniel.

To be continued...

Happy Friday!

(From M2 and the best friend:)

The love story of Ralph and Edna:

Ralph and Edna were both patients in a mental hospital. One day while
they were walking past the hospital swimming pool. Ralph suddenly jumped
into the deep end. He sank to the bottom of the pool and stayed there.

Edna promptly jumped in to save h im. She swam to the bottom and pulled
him out. When the Head Nurse Director became aware of Edna's heroic act
she immediately ordered her to be discharged from the hospital, as she
now considered her to be mentally stable.

When she went to tell Edna the news she said, 'Edna, I have good news
and bad news. The good news is you're being discharged, since you were
able to rationally respond to a crisis by jumping in and saving the life
of the person you love. I have concluded that your act displays sound
mindedness. The bad news is, Ralph hung himself in the bathroom with his
bathrobe belt right after you saved him. I am so sorry, but he's dead.'

Edna replied, 'He didn't hang himself, I put him there to dry. How soon
can I go home?'

Happy Mental Health day! You can do your bit by remembering to send an
email to an unstable friend, like I did. HaHaHa! Love to all my 'unstable' friends.

Que comience el show!

Reyes laptop is real, contrary to what many of the Democraps and izmierdistas have had to say. WSJ runs with this, and I love it.

PAGE ONE

Chávez Aided Colombia Rebels,
Captured Computer Files Show

BOGOTÁ, Colombia -- A cache of controversial computer files closely tying Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez to communist rebels seeking to topple Colombia's government appear to be authentic, U.S. intelligence officials say.

The trove -- found on a dead guerrilla leader's laptops during a military raid in March -- is likely to ratchet up pressure for the U.S. to impose sanctions on one of its most important oil suppliers.

The files that have been made public so far have largely confirmed Mr. Chávez's well-known sympathy for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But a review by The Wall Street Journal of more than 100 new files from the computers suggests that Venezuela has broader and deeper ties to the FARC than previously known.

These documents indicate Venezuela appears to be making concrete offers to help arm the rebels, possibly with rocket-propelled grenades and ground-to-air missiles. The files suggest that Venezuela offered the FARC the use of one of its ports to receive arms shipments, and that Venezuela raised the prospect of drawing up a joint security plan with the FARC and sought basic training in guerrilla-warfare techniques.

"There is complete agreement in the intelligence community that these documents are what they purport to be," a senior U.S. official said. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has been sharing its assessments with the White House, this official said.

Washington's stance is likely to hurt Venezuela's already deeply strained relationship with the U.S., its biggest trade partner. It could also add pressure for the U.S. to declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism, alongside Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria, and impose sanctions.

Mr. Chávez has repeatedly said the files were faked by Colombia. "We don't recognize the validity of any of these documents," Bernardo Álvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S., said in a Wednesday interview. "They are false, and an attempt to discredit the Venezuelan government."

Interpol, the international police organization, has yet to give its view on the files' legitimacy. Colombia asked Interpol to perform an independent forensic analysis, and next week, Interpol Secretary General Ronald Noble is scheduled to travel to Colombia to present the findings.

Mr. Noble declined to comment on Interpol's conclusions. He said Interpol hasn't yet briefed foreign governments on its findings. "Anyone who has told you that Interpol has informed him about our findings has given you false information," he said.

Cross-Border Raid

The computer files hint at the depth of Mr. Chávez's antipathy towards the U.S., which he often describes as an "empire" oppressing Latin America. According to one document, Venezuela's interior minister, Ramón Rodríguez Chacin, last November asked the FARC to train Venezuela's military in nuts-and-bolts guerrilla tactics -- including "operational tactics, explosives, ... jungle camps, ambushes, logistics, mobility" -- so that soldiers would be prepared to fight a guerrilla war if the U.S. were to invade Venezuela.

The documents are among more than 10,000 files that Colombian intelligence services say came from three computers belonging to Raúl Reyes, the FARC's former second-in-command. Mr. Reyes was killed in March when Colombia's military staged a contentious cross-border raid into Ecuador, where he was camped.

The FARC itself has suggested the files are fake. A FARC statement published on the Web site of Venezuela's Information Ministry ridiculed Colombia's claims about the computer files, saying computers couldn't have survived the Colombian army attack "even if they had been bullet-proof."

A senior staffer in the U.S. Senate, who had been briefed on the contents of the files, cautioned that Mr. Chávez is known for his bombast, and that while tantalizing, the information in the files would need careful corroboration before action is taken against Venezuela. "We need to see proof of what is mentioned in the reports," the staffer said.

Associated Press

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez

There have been some recent indications that the computers contain accurate information. Police in Costa Rica staged a successful raid on a home belonging to alleged FARC sympathizers, and recovered $480,000 in cash, guided by information from the documents suggesting the money would be located there.

In addition, Ecuador's interior minister confirmed that he had met with Mr. Reyes, after an email describing the previously secret meeting was found on the laptops and made public by Colombia.

The FARC, which has been fighting for control of Colombia for nearly a half-century, funds itself mostly through drug trafficking and kidnapping for ransom. The U.S. considers it to be one of the world's main cocaine suppliers.

The FARC is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S., Canada, Colombia and the European Union. For the U.S., any group that deliberately attacks civilians for political reasons merits such a designation. With troop strength estimated at around 9,000 fighters, that would make the FARC Latin America's oldest and largest such group.

However, Colombia's neighbors, including Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil, don't consider the FARC to be a terrorist organization. Indeed, Mr. Chávez has hailed the group as brother revolutionaries. He has thrown Venezuela's weight behind an effort to remove the FARC from terrorist lists and instead grant the group diplomatic recognition as a "belligerent army."

According to the senior U.S. intelligence official, the Colombian government delivered "thousands" of the controversial documents to Washington in March. Since then, American technical experts have studied them for signs of forgery and to assess whether they correspond to the methods the FARC typically uses to communicate.

"There are no indications whatsoever that they've been fabricated by the Colombians," the official said.

The official said that the most troubling information in the files suggested the FARC's willingness to purchase virtually any type of weapon from any source. The official said Mr. Chávez's government has increasingly been willing to help the FARC reach international buyers. The official cited the FARC's particular desire to acquire surface-to-air missiles, although he said there weren't any signs of the guerrilla movement succeeding.

The FARC Situation

During a speech Wednesday on Latin American relations, President Bush brought up the FARC situation. "Colombia faces a hostile and anti-American neighbor in Venezuela, where the regime has forged an alliance with Cuba, collaborated with FARC terrorists, and provided sanctuary to FARC units."

According to a study last week from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sanctions against Venezuela could backfire if done poorly. The U.S. would need to rally significant regional support or risk that sanctions become "counterproductive" by stirring nationalist or anti-U.S. sentiments.

Venezuela has mounted a vigorous diplomatic offensive to block any move by the U.S. to declare the nation a terrorism sponsor. Such a declaration would prompt U.S. economic sanctions, disrupt $50 billion in annual bilateral trade and jolt the already jittery global oil market, since Venezuela is a major oil producer.

In a speech last month in New York, Mr. Álvarez, Venezuela's ambassador, warned the U.S. would pay a heavy economic price if it made any such move. "There will be very grave economic consequences," Mr. Álvarez said, adding that some 230,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs depend on U.S. exports to Venezuela, which in turn sends some 1.58 million barrels of oil daily to the U.S.

The documents suggest Mr. Chávez is personally involved in helping the guerrillas. In a September 2007 message to the FARC's ruling body, a commander wrote: "Chávez is studying our documents and has said that just like Fidel [Castro] has decided to delegate his other responsibilities to concentrate on the Venezuelan situation, he [Chávez] is ready to do the same to dedicate more time to Colombia."

Colombia has long accused Venezuela of letting the FARC operate on its side of the border, allegations the Venezuelans have denied. But according to one 2005 email, from Jorge Briceño (known as Mono Jojoy, a top FARC military commander), the rebels at that time had some 370 guerrillas and urban sympathizers operating inside Venezuela.

Getting 'Rockets'

One email, apparently sent by a FARC commander known as "Timochenko" to the guerrillas' ruling body in March 2007, describes meetings with Venezuelan naval-intelligence officers who offer the FARC assistance in getting "rockets." The Venezuelans also offer to help a FARC guerrilla travel to the Middle East to learn how to use the rockets.

Colombian military analysts believe the reference is to shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, a weapon that the guerrillas desperately need if they hope to blunt Colombia's recent gains. "The FARC realizes that its military problem is air power," says Gen. Oscar Naranjo, who heads the country's national police.

In another email dated early 2007, FARC commander Iván Márquez describes meetings with the Venezuelan military's intelligence chief, Gen. Hugo Carvajal, and another Venezuelan officer to talk about "finances, arms and border policy." Mr. Márquez relates that the Venezuelans will provide the guerrillas some 20 "very powerful bazookas," which Colombian military officials believe is a reference to rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

An officer reached at Gen. Carvajal's office said the general was the only person authorized to comment and he couldn't be reached because he was traveling.

At the meeting with Gen. Carvajal, another Venezuelan general is described as offering the port of Maracaibo to facilitate arms shipments to the guerrillas. The general suggests piggybacking on shipments from Russia -- from which Venezuela itself is buying everything from Kalashnikovs to jet fighters -- to "include some containers destined to the FARC" with various arms for the guerrillas' own use.

A spokesman at the Russian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

The proposals to obtain weaponry are part of a broad program of economic and political support for the FARC from Mr. Chávez's government, some of which was detailed in emails that were made public in the days just after the cross-border military raid that yielded the computer files.

Another email describes a November meeting between two FARC commanders and Mr. Chávez. The commanders, Ricardo Granda and Iván Márquez, report back in the email that Mr. Chávez gave orders to create "rest areas" and hospital zones for the guerrillas to use on the Venezuelan side of the border.

Many documents talk about how to fit generous offers of Venezuelan aid to the FARC's long-term "strategic plan" of taking power in Colombia. In one document dated January 2007, one top FARC commander speaks of a "loan" for $250 million to buy arms which the FARC will pay back once it has reached power. "Don't think of it as a loan, think of it as solidarity," says Mr. Rodríguez Chacin, the interior minister, in another document.

Mr. Rodríguez Chacin's press office didn't respond to a request for comment. Earlier this week, he dismissed Colombian newspaper reports that Interpol had confirmed that the computer documents were authentic, according to an Interior Ministry press release. "Imagine somebody taking [evidence] home and manipulating it as he wants, and afterwards presenting it," he said. "What court in the world will accept that evidence?"

While the documents indicate that the FARC is appreciative of Venezuela's efforts, privately the guerrillas occasionally make fun of the Venezuelans' work habits. "It hasn't been easy for us to adapt to the way of being of the Venezuelans," complains Mr. Reyes in one document. "It doesn't seem as if they are conscious of their boring lack of formality." Mr. Chávez "always leaves things until the last moment."

--David Gauthier-Villars in Paris and David Crawford in Berlin contributed to this article.

Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com

Virus alert

VIRUS ALERT - Downloader-UA.h

Fake offer of free MP3's has started the largest malware outbreak since 2003. Over 500,000 people have been infected to date. Please read on to know what to look out for...

Be on the lookout for and delete any message offering free MP3's. Follow this link for more information:

http://www.avertlabs.com/research/blog/index.php/2008/05/06/fake-mp3s-running-rampant/

Tonight, and a bit of commentary on Bolivia

Well, it was low-key, to say the least, and significantly less-lame than last night, when I fell asleep at --wait for it-- 9pm. I met up with my buddy Jonn from This Ain't Hell... (Skye, we missed the third part of the troika, hurry back and visit us) to catch up, and catch up we did.

Before I head up to study Italian grammar --Doppiafila, you will be proud of me!-- I need to get this out of my system. Now, I am no supporter of Evo Morales, ni que nada, but I think that one must be careful in oversimplifying the situation. The referendum held in Santa Cruz was certainly a healthy exercise in democracy, but I think the Bolivian opposition's arguments were a bit specious... If I understand correctly from my Bolivian friends of all different political stripes, the opposition said that this referendum was legitimate because the way in which the Bolivian Constituent Assembly went about approving the new constitution (within the Congress) was illegal, as the opposition members were not present for the vote (with quorum not being reached), but considered legitimate by the government. To me, this just shows the lack of political maturity and ingenuity on the part of the opposition; if they expect to contend with the government, or exercise autonomy in a democratic way in the dissenting departments and key prefectures, I think this is not the best way to start.

And then of course we have this fool who feels the need to butt his way into everything under the sun, and states that the referendum was a failure because, if the "No" (20%) plus abstention are calculated, it means that the "Si" (80%) lost... Chaburro is almost as smart as my buddy Danielito. What screwed up logic, though I kind of wish that he applied it to his own country, considering the cuerda de malandros ineptos in the Venezuelan National Assembly were all elected with less than 15% of the total popular vote...

We shall see what happens if Evo really goes through with this recall referendum. Cuenta regresiva para el Morales?

Mérida Initiative plugs along in Congress

If you are interested in the Mérida Initiative and are in DC, this is not to be missed. There was another hearing today --I was at part of it, but left because I can't waste my entire workday waiting for votes to take place-- and I am anxious to see if I can get a hold of the transcript. If anyone has it, shoot me an e-mail at rolita816@gmail.com

FULL COMMITTEE MEETING NOTICE

Committee on Foreign Affairs

U.S. House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515-0128

Howard L. Berman (D-CA), Chairman

May 7, 2008

TO: MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS

You are respectfully requested to attend an OPEN meeting of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, to be held in Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building, for the purpose of marking up the following legislation:

DATE: Wednesday, May 14, 2008

TIME: 11:00 a.m.

MARKUP OF: H.R. ___, Merida Partnership to Combat Illicit Narcotics and Reduce Violence Authorization Act of 2008.

"Santiago" caught by the Colombians

In this morning's El Tiempo, it is being reported that Gustavo Arbeláez Cardona, alias "Santiago," was detained in the coastal city of Buenaventura.

The head of the FARC's "Manuel Cepeda" front has 27 counts against him open in the Attorney General's office.

As far as I am concerned, this is just one more terrorist off the streets of my beautiful Colombia. I have no sympathy for these people. My most sincere gratitude to all involved in this #*$@'s capture.

El bien germina ya...

Nicaragua, in a political cartoon

My boyfriend Manuelito is very good, but this one takes the proverbial cake. I think, in such a small space, he manages to grasp the vast majority of the problems plaguing the country right now, and does it with a bit of humor. The only thing missing? The incompetent opposition leaders...

El régimen "liberal" de Raúl Castro

La misma vaina de siempre, pese a lo que dicen en La Habana...

De El País (España)

Cuba impide a Yoani Sánchez desplazarse a Madrid para recoger el Ortega y Gasset

Las autoridades deniegan el permiso a la autora de un blog crítico con La Habana

EP - Madrid - 07/05/2008

La cubana Yoani Sánchez, autora de un blog crítico conla situación política y social de su país, ha confirmado que no podrá viajar a España para recibir hoy el Premio Ortega y Gasset porque las autoridades cubanas no le han dado permiso.

Yoani Sánchez

Sánchez tenía previsto volar ayer por la noche a Madrid para participar en la entrega de los galardones concedidos por el diario EL PAÍS. "No me han dado el permiso y me repitieron lo mismo que desde hace dos semanas: no hay respuesta, su caso está detenido", ha explicado. Para viajar al extranjero, los cubanos necesitan un permiso de salida, además de una carta de invitación expedida en el país de destino.

Sánchez, una filóloga de profesión de 33 años, cobró protagonismo fuera de Cuba por la publicación de sus blogs donde relata la vida cotidiana publicada desde 2007 en el blog Generación Y. "Tal vez las autoridades leyeron que este viaje me iba a potenciar mucho", ha dicho la joven cubana. "Con la negativa del viaje yo creo que ellos están reconociendo que existo". La bloguera había indicado que su caso era un "test perfecto" para comprobar si la apertura anunciada por Raúl Castro es real.

La revista estadounidense Time incluía la semana pasada a Sánchez en su lista de los 100 personajes más influyentes de 2008. Ante la posibilidad de no poder viajar a Madrid, grabó un mensaje que será reproducido durante la entrega de los Ortega y Gasset. Un bloguero cubano residente en España recogerá por ella el premio en la categoría de periodismo digital.

Su blog ofrece una mirada crítica en un país donde los medios de comunicación son controlados por el Estado y el acceso a Internet está restringido. El Gobierno cubano atribuye las limitaciones de acceso a la red al embargo comercial impuesto desde hace más de 45 años por Estados Unidos.

Animo, querida Yoani...todo mi apoyo desde aquí!

Horrible placement on HuffPost

A co-worker sent this to me just now, and I think it's absolutely priceless. Thanks, Daniel :)

Scoraggiata

This is a very pretty-sounding word in Italian, but it doesn't have the nicest of meanings: it means frustrated, in the discouraged sense.

I was geared up to write tonight on Bolivia and Colombia, but I was given a huge project at the end of the day today, which is due tomorrow at noon, and I'm not done yet. So, I'm off to do that. With any luck, I'll have something tomorrow, depending on what time I get home. Too many things going on during the Spring.

Have a nice night, kids.

McCain launches website in Spanish

While the Dems are busy killing themselves, looking in shambles going into their convention this summer, and STILL not taking positions on issues which matter to many average Americans --no, saying that "hope" and "change" are good things don't count-- McCain has been cruising along, minding his own business. My friend Carlos and I had a discussion about this a few days ago, when we both agreed that McCain wasn't being proactive enough to engage moderates; last night I received a text message from him, telling me about McCain's new page. I finally got the chance to check it out this morning, and it's surprisingly attractive, user-friendly, and --dare I say it?-- hip.

McCain has been in politics for a long time, and knows that he needs to pick up key sectors, so why not start with the largest minority in the country? Sounds good to me. We'll see how he does with this demographic in November...