Comments mainly on Latin American politics, specifically the state of democracy/chavismo in Venezuela and the failures of the F$LN government in Nicaragua.

Monday, December 31, 2007

Uribe gets antsy, heads for Villavicencio

In a press conference just a few minutes ago, Restrepo of the Alto Comisionado para la Paz of the Colombian government announced that President Uribe will head to Villavicencio, arriving in the next few hours. Restrepo has blamed the FARC for the delay.

Colombia's official line for the Uribe's visit is that he will be meeting with the international guarantors, explaining that the delay is not due to his government's actions. While I have no doubt that this meeting will take place, I am also pretty confident that Uribe's presence is a clear signal to both the Venezuelan government and the FARC that Uribe is not pleased with the progress and lack of expediency of the operation, and that he will not sit back on his laurels while being made a fool by his Venezuelan counterpart.

Developing...

Looks like Kirchner isn't exactly thrilled with the delays either...


For the time being, the FARC won't turn over the hostages because of alleged military incursion on the part of the Colombians

There is a very important press conference going on right now in Villavicencio. Uribe gave one just a short time ago in which he accepted a cease fire and suggested that the FARC may no longer have Emmanuel. Restrepo is talking about a child which may be Emmanuel; the child was very sick, poorly treated when turned in to the ICBF in San Jose del Guaviare in June 2005 -- but is now in good general health, exhibiting signs of normal psychological development in Bogota. He is reading from medical reports from 2005. I just got home, so am trying to figure out what's going on...

Uribe is now asking for a DNA test from Clara de Rojas and other family members to prove or disprove what was just reported in the report. He is also requesting a DNA from the man who took the child to Bogota, who is supposedly the father. Clara Rojas' brother will be participating.

With statements like, "Las FARC mienten, el Estado colombiano cumple," while true, may not be the best PR move on the Colombian government's part.

The Colombian government has accepted a corredor de seguridad (security area/corridor) for the liberation; this is in the wake of Uribe opening up all the necessary options for this process to be realized.

Shock: Chavez says that the Colombian government is inventing things, without offering any proof of his own, and --surprise, surprise-- blames Uribe. What is absurd about this claim is that Chavez says that Uribe could prove the hypothesis he suggested tomorrow. If that is true, that Uribe's hypothesis about little Emmanuel, Chavez is in much more trouble than he thinks, not only with the Colombians, but also with the FARC. More of the he-said she-said stuff, we'll see when we get the DNA results.

An Amnesty Law will be signed today; too little too late? (Here in English.) Yes. Given the conditions, it seems to affect a relatively small number of people, in that, some are for very specific cases, and some are so vague, that it seems they would be granted on a case-by-case basis, and not necessarily by any standard criteria. See? Told you. Some of the most important cases, those in exile, as well as those who have committed "crimes against humanity" and those who laid siege on the Cuban embassy, have been excluded. Any mention of the Venezuelans held by FARC? Not a word. This effort to reconcile the country is paltry, and at best an attempt to distract from the utter failure that Operation Emmanuel has become.

Just FYI: Chavez's unilateral decreeing of an amnesty law is unconstitutional. According to the 1999 Constitution, Article 187, number 5, only the National Assembly has the right to do so. To be sure, the formality of having the lackeys in the National Assembly pass this through will happen shortly after the new year, only if the opposition insist.

A very unfortunate way to end the year for all parties involved: BREAKDOWN. Explosive words were exchanged on the parts of the Colombian and Venezuelan governments today, which probably exacerbated the situation, but I am willing to go out on a limb and call out the FARC, saying that they were trying to buy as much time as possible in the hopes that they could establish credibility, and when things went south, it became more and more clear that retaining the hostages worked most in their favor. The FARC couldn't care less about Chavez's international standing. As long as they get their money and sanctuary so as to traffic drugs, they are happy. Speaking of which, if the deal is off, did the FARC get their $500 million? If efforts are later renewed, will the good people of Venezuela be forced to shell out more cash for another circus which funds terrorism?

Well, we all expected it...he had to get the last word in.

I'm going out with BBP. Back before midnight. A mis amigos venezolanos: si no llego antes de que sea la medianoche de Uds, mis mejores deseos para el 2008. Un gran abrazo a todos desde Connecticut.

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